| Read
about this problem
and many others in "Chance Rules" available below at amazon.co.uk
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QHE Question: |
Read
about this problem
and many others in "Chance Rules" available below at amazon.com
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The Choise de Roi is a French term for having a boy first and then a girl. In his excellent book Chance Rules - An Informal Guide to Probability, Risk and Statistics , B Everitt gives an interesting account of these three situations, to which I have added another; A new neighbour arrives at your door to borrow a cup of sugar. You ask whether she has any children. She replies (one of); |
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(a) "Yes I have two". "Any boys?", you ask. (b) "Yes, one nine years old and one five". "Is the eldest a boy?", you ask. (c) "Yes I have two" "Any boys?", you ask. "Yes" she says. The next day you see her with a small boy. "Is this your son?", you ask. (d) "Yes". "Do you have two children?", you ask.
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| "Yes" she says, as she takes her sugar and leaves. | ||||
| The question is, do these four possible answers affect the probability that both her children are boys? You should use this activity to write a few paragraphs about how the information given can alter the probability of an event. | ||||
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